How calls, Signals, and receipts work
Make your call before you see the crowd's. Every forecast gets a timestamped receipt. Signals are the evidence.
Principles
- Clear rules
- Every question defines in advance what evidence resolves it Yes or No. Ambiguous questions stay out.
- Call before the crowd
- Make your call before the crowd’s forecast appears. The product enforces that order.
- Locked timestamps
- Every call gets a timestamped receipt. No edits after submission.
- Honest uncertainty
- Pick a percentage that reflects what you actually believe. 60% is not certainty.
- Evidence decides
- Questions resolve against the rules and sources set out at publication.
- Proof takes time
- A meaningful set of receipts needs resolved questions across topics. Early results are provisional.
- Different is not better
- Disagreeing with the crowd only helps if you are right. Contrarian is not a credential.
- Calibration matters
- Events you give a 70% chance should happen about 70% of the time.
What this product is not
Information only
Obvious Later provides information, not investment, legal, medical, or financial advice.
No money at stake
Forecasts are personal calls. This is not a prediction market.
No financial return
No forecast earns a monetary reward, whatever the outcome.
Forecasts can be wrong
Receipts record what you believed. They do not guarantee you were right.
Forecasts can be wrong. Calibration shows once enough of your questions resolve.