Will an agent win the $700,000 ARC-AGI-3 Grand Prize in ARC Prize 2026?
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Today's QuestionSpace
Will SpaceX catch a Starship upper stage with its launch tower arms by December 31, 2026?
Answer in 49 days
How this resolves: Resolves Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026 (UTC), a Starship upper stage (Ship) is caught by the launch tower arms at a SpaceX launch site after a flight, as confirmed by SpaceX on its official channels and reported by at least one independent outlet (Space.com, SpaceNews or NASASpaceflight).
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60%
At 60%, about 6 of 10 calls like this should come true.
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What is Obvious Later?
Obvious Later is a free forecasting site for open questions about frontier science and technology. You give a question a private probability from 0 to 100% before the crowd forecast is shown to you. Every call is timestamped and cannot be edited, and each question resolves Yes or No against rules written when it opened.