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Artificial IntelligencePolicyOpen

Will the US and China hold their follow-up dialogue on AI by November 30, 2026?

Answer: 2026-11-30

How this resolves: Resolves Yes if, on or before November 30, 2026, the US government or China's government (for example the White House, State Department, Treasury or China's Ministry of Commerce or Foreign Ministry) confirms that an official bilateral dialogue focused on artificial intelligence has taken place.

Why it matters

After the Trump and Xi summit in September, both governments said they had agreed on a channel for AI incidents and would hold a follow-up AI dialogue by the end of November. Promised talks often slip, so the date is a useful test of follow-through.

Question provenance

How this question entered the record and how it will be resolved.

Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if, on or before November 30, 2026, the US government or China's government (for example the White House, State Department, Treasury or China's Ministry of Commerce or Foreign Ministry) confirms that an official bilateral dialogue focused on artificial intelligence has taken place. Resolves No otherwise.
Expected resolution
Nov 30, 2026

Key evidence

  • CNA/Reuters, September 28, 2026: China's commerce ministry said both sides will hold a follow-up AI dialogue by the end of November
  • CNBC, September 25, 2026: leaders avoided agreement on addressing AI threats

Skeptical perspective

The summit avoided agreement on AI threats, and tensions over chips and export controls could push talks into next year.

What could change the outlook

  • The APEC meeting in November
  • New US chip export rules
  • Progress on the wider trade truce
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